Discrete-Time AffineQ Term Structure Models with Generalized Market Prices of Risk
نویسنده
چکیده
This article develops a rich class of discrete-time, nonlinear dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). Under the risk-neutral measure, the distribution of the state vector Xt resides within a family of discrete-time affine processes that nests the exact discrete-time counterparts of the entire class of continuous-time models in Duffie and Kan (1996) and Dai and Singleton (2000). Under the historical distribution, our approach accommodates nonlinear (nonaffine) processes while leading to closed-form expressions for the conditional likelihood functions for zero-coupon bond yields. As motivation for our framework, we show that it encompasses many of the equilibrium models with habit-based preferences or recursive preferences and long-run risks. We illustrate our methods by constructing maximum likelihood estimates of a nonlinear discrete-time DTSM with habit-based preferences in which bond prices are known in closed form. We conclude that habit-based models, as typically parameterized in the literature, do not match key features of the conditional distribution of bond yields. (JEL G12, C50, E13, E21)
منابع مشابه
Discrete-time Dynamic Term Structure Models with Generalized Market Prices of Risk
This paper develops a rich class of discrete-time, nonlinear dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). Under the risk-neutral measure, the distribution of the state vector Xt resides within a family of discrete-time affine processes that nests the exact discrete-time counterparts of the entire class of continuous-time models in Duffie and Kan (1996) and Dai and Singleton (2000). Moreover, we allow...
متن کاملDiscrete-Time Affine Term Structure Models with Generalized Market Prices of Risk
This article develops a rich class of discrete-time, nonlinear dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). Under the risk-neutral measure, the distribution of the state vector Xt resides within a family of discrete-time affine processes that nests the exact discrete-time counterparts of the entire class of continuous-time models in Duffie and Kan (1996) and Dai and Singleton (2000). Under the histor...
متن کاملMedium Term Hydroelectric Production Planning - A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Model
Multistage stochastic programming is a key technology for making decisions over time in an uncertain environment. One of the promising areas in which this technology is implementable, is medium term planning of electricity production and trading where decision makers are typically faced with uncertain parameters (such as future demands and market prices) that can be described by stochastic proc...
متن کاملQuantitative models for determining prices in a remanufacturing system with exclusive and competitive market structure
Remanufacturing is an industrial process that makes used products reusable. Remanufacturing is a way to establish a closed-loop supply chain. One of the important aspects in both reverse logistics and remanufacturing is pricing of returned and remanufactured products (called cores) that it has been noticed in this paper. In addition, in this paper the researchers have tried to present a mathema...
متن کاملParametric Estimates of High Frequency Market Microstructure Noise as an Unsystematic Risk
Noise is essential for the existence of a liquid market, and if noise traders are not present in the market, the trade volume will drop severely and an important aspect of the market philosophy will be lost. However, these noise traders bring noise to the market, and the existence of noise in prices indicates a temporary deviation in prices from their fundamental values. In particular, high-fre...
متن کامل